Toward Accurate Spatiotemporal COVID-19 Risk Scores Using High-Resolution Real-World Mobility Data

As countries look toward re-opening of economic activities amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, ensuring public health has been challenging. While contact tracing only aims to track past activities of infected users, one path to safe reopening is to develop reliable spatiotemporal risk scores to indicate the propensity of the disease. Existing works which aim at developing risk scores either rely on compartmental model-based reproduction numbers (which assume uniform population mixing) or develop coarse-grain spatial scores based on reproduction number (R0) and macro-level density-based mobility statistics. Instead, in this article, we develop a Hawkes process-based technique to assign relatively fine-grain spatial and temporal risk scores by leveraging high-resolution mobility data based on cell-phone originated location signals. While COVID-19 risk scores also depend on a number of factors specific to an individual, including demography and existing medical conditions, the primary mode of disease transmission is via physical proximity and contact. Therefore, we focus on developing risk scores based on location density and mobility behaviour. We demonstrate the efficacy of the developed risk scores via simulation based on real-world mobility data. Our results show that fine-grain spatiotemporal risk scores based on high-resolution mobility data can provide useful insights and facilitate safe re-opening.

Estimating Spread of Contact-Based Contagions in a Population Through Sub-Sampling

Various phenomena such as viruses, gossips, and physical objects (e.g., packages and marketing pamphlets) can be spread through physical contacts. The spread depends on how people move, i.e., their mobility patterns. In practice, mobility patterns of an entire population is never available, and we usually have access to location data of a subset of individuals. In this paper, we formalize and study the problem of estimating the spread of a phenomena in a population, given that we only have access to sub-samples of location visits of some individuals in the population. We show that simple solutions that estimate the spread in the sub-sample and scale it to the population, or more sophisticated solutions that rely on modeling location visits of individuals do not perform well in practice. Instead, we directly model the co-locations between the individuals. We introduce PollSpreader and PollSusceptible, two novel approaches that model the co-locations between individuals using a contact network, and infer the properties of the contact network using the sub-sample to estimate the spread of the phenomena in the entire population. We analytically show that our estimates provide an upper bound and a lower bound on the spread of the disease in expectation. Finally, using a large high-resolution real-world mobility dataset, we experimentally show that our estimates are accurate in practice, while other methods that do not correctly account for co-locations between individuals result in entirely wrong observations (e.g, premature prediction of herd-immunity).